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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."