Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.