🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.