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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest field is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still